I've changed my mind about Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD. I don't think HD-DVD will win just because it is compatible with current manufacturing technology. I think we'll have both.
DVD players are already really multiplayers - they play most anything. Some even play DivX. They play DVD-RAM, DVD+R, DVD-R, DVD+RW, DVD-RW, CD Audio, CD-R, CD-RW, manufactured DVDs and CDs, and support a multitude of formats. Some will play your JPEG pictures and make a slide show for you.
So, it will cost a few bucks extra, but the DVD player of the future will just add Blu-Ray and HD-DVD to the list of formats they support. In the early days, I suspect a lot of films will be released on HD-DVD because it will be cheaper to manufacture. HD-DVDs can be made with existing DVD pressing plants. Later, as the movie studios and conusmers want even more storage, Blu-Ray will take the lead.
But we'll have both, just as we have DVD-RAM, DVD+/-RW, and CD all coexisting.
[Note: 1/27/2006 - now that we know that Blu-Ray is going to cost TWICE AS MUCH as HD-DVD we can safely write it off.]
© Stephen Clarke-Willson, 2005 - All Rights Reserved.